Puntland Development and Research Center (PDRC) and East Africa University (EAU) Bossaso have jointly released a groundbreaking report titled “Illegal Migration (Tahriib) in Puntland: A Mixed-Methods Study.” Published in 2026, this research explores the underlying drivers, youth intentions, and enabling systems behind irregular migration across four key districts: Badhan, Bosaso, Galkayo, and Garowe. Combining a structured quantitative survey of 406 respondents with extensive qualitative insights from 90 community participants, the study provides critical evidence on how Tahriib has evolved from a crisis-driven survival strategy into a deeply embedded social, economic, and psychological condition.
Crucially, the findings challenge the common assumption that irregular migration is driven primarily by unemployment. Instead, institutional mismanagement, including institutional weaknesses, nepotism, and clan-based favoritism, emerged as the single most strongly cited push factor, with 81 percent of respondents agreeing that public sector exclusion encourages departure. Furthermore, the data highlight a clear “education-aspiration trap,” where migration intentions actually peak among diploma holders at 46 percent and remain high among university graduates, showing that higher education raises local expectations without matching labor market opportunities. Strikingly, the historical gender gap in migration is also narrowing rapidly, with both male and female respondents demonstrating an identical 32 percent intention rate to migrate within the next five years. A central takeaway of the report is the “Central Awareness Paradox“: while generic awareness of the deadly risks of Tahriib is near-universal, it fails to act as an effective deterrent because local conditions feel equally or more hopeless to the youth. To counter these interconnected structural failures, the report calls for a coordinated set of transformative interventions. Key recommendations include reforming public sector recruitment to restore meritocracy, aligning university curricula with real private sector demands, integrating structured psychosocial support to counter youth alienation, and building internal law enforcement integrity to disrupt sophisticated smuggling networks.